Chemical weather forecasting as a tool for field campaign planning:
Predictions and observations of large-scale features during INDOEX, MINOS, and CONTRACE
Mark G. Lawrence1, Philip J. Rasch2, Rolf von Kuhlmann1,
Jonathan Williams1, Horst Fischer1, Marian de Reus1,
Jos Lelieveld1, Paul J. Crutzen1, Heidi Huntrieser3,
Jörg Heland3, Andreas Stohl4, Caroline Forster4,
Martin Schultz5, Philip Stier5 and Russell Dickerson6
1Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, PO Box 3060, 55020 Mainz, Germany
2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
3Institute for Atmospheric Physics, DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
4Technical University München, München, Germany
5Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
6Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
Results are presented from the first operational global chemical
weather forecast system used for daily flight planning of field
measurement campaigns. The system uses the 3D chemistry-transport
model MATCH-MPIC driven by meteorological data from a weather center
(NCEP) to provide daily 2-3-day forecasts of the global distributions
of O3 and related gases, as well as regional CO tracers. The system
has been fully operational since 1 June 2001, and thus far has been
actively employed in the flight planning for three field campaigns:
INDOEX, MINOS, and CONTRACE. Despite the well-known uncertainties in
contemporary chemistry-transport models, the system has been able to
predict several large-scale features in CO and O3 which have been
observed during these campaigns, such as the location of the chemical
ITCZ during INDOEX, plumes from western and eastern Europe as well as
from Asia over the Mediterranean during MINOS, and plumes from North
America over Europe during CONTRACE. The forecast results are discussed
in comparison to observations, focusing on both strong and weak points
of the model, and on future development directions in chemical weather
forecasting.